Waitlisted at the UCs? Breaking Down UC Admissions Data: What Students Need to Know.

The University of California (UC) system continues to be one of the most competitive public university systems in the nation, with hundreds of thousands of applicants (251,907 to be exact!) vying for limited spots each year. The 2026 admissions cycle was no exception, with some campuses seeing increased selectivity, while others expanded their waitlist admissions. For students in the Class of 2026 and beyond, understanding this data is essential for navigating this seemingly complicated process. Let’s dive into the key insights from this year’s data and what it might mean for your admissions journey. (Rejected from the UCs and looking for data on appeals? Click here!)

The most applied to school in the US. Apps are up 2.3%!

A Record-Breaking Number of Applications

Despite the slightly smaller number of graduating students in the Class of 2026, the University of California continued to see an increase in interest, with over 251,000 applications submitted across all nine UC undergraduate campuses (a 0.6% increase over last year). This includes more than 205,000 first-year applicants, and the numbers remain strong across all categories: California residents, out-of-state domestic students, and international applicants. Here are some highlights from the preliminary data:

Surprisingly, even after years of surging applications, the most popular UCs continued to see robust application growth.

• UCLA leads in raw numbers with 177,317 total applications, an increase of 2.3% from the 2025 admissions cycle.

• UC San Diego follows closely with 168,066 applications - a 5% increase from the Fall 2025 cycle.

• Next comes UC Berkeley with 159,344 total applicants - which a 6% total increase.

• Santa Cruz marks an amazing comeback after years of lagging behind application number. Applications surged 18.7% to 92,333. Will next year mark the year it also breaks the century mark?
  

Here’s a breakdown of the Fall 2026 first-year application summary:

Campus	Total Applications	First-Year Total	CA Residents	Domestic US	International
UC Systemwide	251,907	205,431	130,211	43,150	32,070
Berkeley	159,344	133,128	76,201	31,707	25,220
Davis	122,271	104,850	70,354	13,472	21,024
Irvine	153,025	125,987	87,177	16,902	21,908
UCLA	177,317	146,672	89,729	32,225	24,718
Merced	54,900	48,499	41,539	1,620	5,340
Riverside	87,048	72,295	63,043	2,998	6,254
San Diego	168,066	141,752	89,437	26,835	25,480
Santa Barbara	127,369	108,503	73,187	16,290	19,026
Santa Cruz	92,333	78,832	65,600	6,742	6,490

These data reinforce the scale and diversity of the UC applicant pool and allude to the large impersonal nature of the admissions process. Despite reaching a plateau in graduating students, we're seeing a growth applications for a variety of potential reasons: a rise in a proportion of students applying to college, a rise in the average number of applications submitted per student, grade inflation, and a growing interest in attending a UC school.

The Role of the Waitlist

Given the exorbitant number of applications, UC campuses have had to prioritize enrollment management—the strategic process of filling a class without exceeding capacity. Since the p*ndemic in 2020, student decision-making has shifted. More students are opting to stay closer to home, and campuses have seen unpredictable yield rates. As a result, several UCs have struggled with over enrollment, which leads to overcrowded classes and housing issues— think dorm rooms meant for two students becoming triples, and difficulties registering for classes.

To avoid these challenges, UCs are now relying more heavily on enrollment management tools (i.e., deferrals and waitlists) to manage class sizes precisely.

If you’re reading this article, you’re might be one of the students who’ve found themselves on the waitlist. So here’s some interesting info for you about the waitlist itself.

Please note that this is based on previous years’ data. Past performance does not mean that this cycle's results will be similar.

For students who were not initially admitted, the waitlist played a significant role in the admissions process. Some key takeaways:

• UC San Diego had the highest number of waitlist offers at 36,709, with 5,284 students eventually admitted from the waitlist.

• UC Santa Barbara had one of the highest waitlist admission rates at 53.3%, offering hope for students who remained patient.

• UC Berkeley, in contrast, admitted none of the 9101 students who opted into from its waitlist, a unfortunately by-product of its growing yield.
  

These stats underscore the idea that there is quite a variety of movement on the waitlists that often correlate inversely with the popularity of the school

Waitlist Admit Rate Trends (2018–2025) and 2026 Predictions

Year	Berkeley	Davis	Irvine	UCLA	Riverside	UCSD	UCSB	UCSC
2019	28%	56%	19%	13%	34%	35%	10%	62%
2020	33%	79%	24%	19%	68%	37%	96%	86%
2021	5%	n/a	15%	2%	80%	0%	21%	53%
2022	1%	19%	87%	3%	40%	7%	27%	13%
2023	25%	41%	86%	12%	30%	14%	57%	88%
2024	0%	45%	48%	13%	72%	24%	82%	36%
2025	0%	39%	*	11%	*	21%	53%	41%
2026*	5%	40%	50%	10%	60%	25%	50%	50%

The percentages we provide were arrived at calculating what percentage of students were admitted to the campus after opting in to the waitlist. Not all students who are offered waitlist choose to opt-in; they may have already accepted an offer from another campus or may have accidentally ignored waitlist offer.

From the data of the past 7 years as well as our understanding of public perception and admissions trends, we've also come out with predications of how the waitlist may work this year. A few notes on the data we've compiled:

• UC Merced does not use waitlists.

• 2022 was the first post-COVID year which means the data is a bit of an outlier

• UC Riverside and UC Irvine did not provide data on the 2024-25 application cycle, as such, we cannot provide those results.

Berkeley and UCLA are predicted to have low acceptances of the waitlist.

Most UCs have historically gone deep into their waitlists.

How the UC Waitlist Works: Algorithms and Institutional Priorities

It’s important to understand that the waitlist process at UC campuses isn’t random or based solely on who is “next in line.” Instead, it’s largely driven by algorithms and institutional priorities. Each waitlisted student is "tagged" for a variety of categories. Here are some categories that they may use:

• Major: Some UCs pay particularly close attention to major sizes due to space constraints. If fewer biology majors enroll than expected, the university may go to the waitlist looking specifically for students who applied as biology majors.

• Equitable state representation: As a public institution, it is in their interest to have a student body that reflects the geographic diversity of California. If an unusually low number of students from a particular high school or region accept their admissions offers, a campus may turn to the waitlist to admit additional students from that area in order to preserve that geographic representation.

• Demographic and geographic diversity: Campuses aim to create a well-rounded class that reflects the diversity of California. This includes considerations such as first-generation status, socioeconomic background, and geographic distribution.

• Institutional priorities: Factors like intended major, out-of-state vs. in-state status, and citizenship will influence who is admitted off the waitlist.
  

These campuses are large and complex, and their enrollment models are built on data-driven systems designed to achieve institutional balance. That’s why trying to predict what will happen (or taking waitlist results personally) can be emotionally draining and an inefficient use of your energy. Take a deep breathe and let it go!

There are quite many analogies I could use, but let's use applying for jobs as an example. If a potential employer tells you that you're on the short list of candidates and that they'll make a decision within a few weeks, realistically, there is nothing you can do. Sure, you could try to bring donuts to the office, or send them a new letter of recommendation, but will that really change their mind?

Should You Submit a Letter of Continued Interest (LOCI)?

A common question from waitlisted students is whether they should submit a Letter of Continued Interest (LOCI). However, unlike some private universities, most UC campuses do NOT accept LOCIs from waitlisted students. The only exception is UCLA, which allows waitlisted students to submit a waitlist statement.

Why UCs Don’t Accept LOCIs:

• They're inundated with unsolicited documents – Imagine reviewing 100k applications and then having to read 10,000 extra letters about how much you love the school. In the cogent words of Sweet Brown, "ain't nobody got time for that." Any additional materials sent to the UC admissions offices will be filtered into a abyss.

• Formalized waitlist policies – UC campuses focus primarily on the original application and the waitlist opt-in form when making their final decisions. They already know how they will manage accepting the thousands of students of their waitlisk.

• Admissions transparency – UCs clearly state in their waitlist FAQs that no additional letters or materials will influence their decisions.
  

What You Should Do Instead:

• Decide if you want to opt in – All UCs have set the waitlist opt-in deadline as April 15.

• Follow the UC waitlist instructions carefully – If your campus allows a waitlist opt-in statement, submit it through the official portal.

• Review waitlist FAQs – Each UC has different policies, so check the guidelines for your specific school.

• Secure a backup plan – Since UC waitlist admissions are unpredictable, make sure you have committed to another school by the May 1st deadline.

  
  

  

  Don't let senioritis get the best of you!

  
  

When Should I Expect to Hear Anything?

Based on historical trends, the University of California schools typically begin releasing waitlist decisions shortly after May 1—the deadline for admitted students to submit their Statement of Intent to Register (SIR). Once the UCs know how many spots remain unfilled, they begin notifying students on the waitlist in waves.

In each round, some students are offered admission for the coming academic year. However, not all students who receive an offer will accept, so campuses continue to admit more students in subsequent batches until they’ve filled their incoming class. Based on information previous years, most admissions offers were issued - at latest - by June 30.

Key Takeaways for the Class of 2026

• Finish strong – Your final grades matter. Keep your foot on the gas. If you do get off the waitlist, these schools will expect you to report strong final grades that match your original application.

• Look ahead – The waitlist is not a guarantee. Be excited about the schools that said yes and start exploring the amazing resources and programs they have to offer.

• Don’t try to game the system – The algorithm is unpredictable and built around institutional goals. There isn’t really anything that one person can do to change the behavior of the system no matter how broken they think it is.

• Celebrate your path – College is what you make of it. A school’s name doesn’t define your success.

• Consider transfer options – For those students who have ample reason for needing to go to a UC, you may wish to consider the transfer option, as, statistically speaking, it can be much more favorable.

• Still have questions you want answered? Sign up here for a retroactive application review.

Key Takeaways for the Class of 2027 and Beyond

• The competition is fierce – If you’re aiming for a highly "rejective" UC like Berkeley or UCLA, understand that single-digit admit rates mean that nobody is guaranteed a spot. Strengthen your application with strong PIQs, extracurriculars, and grades and AP test scores that place you in the top 9% of your school.

• Apply broadly – Don’t just focus on one set of schools. There are thousands of colleges out there with incredible programs. In fact, many colleges surpass UCs in variety of categories. Explore your options widely because there is a very real chance that you may inadvertently leave yourself with few options if you only apply to UCs.

Final Thoughts

If you want help navigating this process .

Have questions or experiences to share? Drop a comment below—we’d love to hear from you.